Welcome back to The Athletic for another exciting round of fantasy football Q&A with your favorite analyst’s favorite analyst. Before we kick off Week 11 with my custom projections, I wanted to take a second on a question I get all the time on how to apply them more effectively. Believe it or not, oftentimes it’s not as simple as choosing the higher number (I know, right!).
First, it’s crucial to understand projections aim to quantify a median outcome, which requires a more critical eye in many toss-up situations. For example, RBs Derrick Henry and Rachaad White project very similarly this weekend. However, there’s an important contextual element missing here that only each individual player can answer.
Let’s say you think the Jaguars are being greatly overrated by the general public and laying a touchdown on the road to a divisional opponent is unwarranted. Then you also believe a neutral or positive game script’s very likely for the Titans, in which case Henry’s the play. When ahead, he’s the engine of that offense and the sole owner of goal-line touches. On the other hand, if you don’t think Will Levis can operate against Jacksonville on defense, or stop Trevor Lawrence and the vertical attack then you can’t confidently start Henry. If the Titans fall behind by two scores, one thing’s certain; you can kiss the King’s snap share goodbye.
If you still find yourself unsure anticipating, my favorite place to look is the most informed source: Las Vegas. Check each team’s implied total for the upcoming game and how it compares to the other teams that weekend as a guide. Personally, I’m generally starting the player with the higher floor, unless I’m already way behind in my matchup due to sideways action on Thursday Night Football. Again, incorporating pertinent data to add a layer of context to a nuanced decision is always the best approach. That one applies outside of fantasy football, people. Hopefully, that left everyone with an extra gadget in their utility belt, ready for use in the future.
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